This sounds like virtually every algorithm, system process and black box ever devised, regardless of the field, is not property of anyone. I have a friend that, as an employee of a stock-trading firm, wrote a black box to facilitate stock trading. What I'm hearing here is that he should be able to replicate that program if he so wishes (though I suppose he can't bring the documentation with him, as that documentation would be output that the firm owns). Unless someone applies for a patent, this sounds like everything in this algorithm field is public property.
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Your description is copyrightable, but not the method described. In fact, if it turns out that there is only one way to describe your method, that description will not be protected if it prevents someone from using the method.
Perhaps you can add a little more clarity to your above statement, while noting my text below:
The basic concept I have is by definition describable in only one way: how much does the win expectation of the game move, based on the game context. The closer and later the game, the higher the degree to which the outcome of the game will change. This is true in all facets of life. What's the change in likelihood of you getting into an accident if you wait until the light turns yellow before crossing the road. How much more likely will death occur at age 80 than age 30.
How you go about this, the actuarial process, would be much different. I'm taking it that the actuarial process is also nothing but algorithms, and therefore, not IP?
So, I have my actuarial process to go about establishing this Leveraged Index. I have 4 different spinoffs of the same core concept. It sounds like if I describe exactly how each of the spinoffs work, it will become apparent that there is only one way to program each of the spinoffs. And, based on your statement, it sounds like if I describe my method, and if my description shows that there's only one way to do it, then my description will also not be protected.
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One final note, somewhat related to the above, and about baseball.
There are several firms that collect the pitch-by-pitch accounts of all games. They are coded in a very specific way (though each firm will code it differently). It is a certainty that I can transform the account of one firm into the system of another firm. As far as I can see, all this is data, and data is not copyrightable.
All these firms all make you sign an NDA, and that you can't use this data for commercial purposes, and you can't share this data with others. As far as I can see, the agreement is basically unenforceable, right? I mean, they can sell this data to me, and I can transform it into my own system, and sell it outright as well. Am I wrong?
It sounds like there's no protection for the "sweat of the brow". The only way for these firms to make money is not on the selling of the data, but on producing something that others didn't think of. But, once they produce it, it's fair game.
Tom